5 "Swing Teams" that could alter the NFL season...

Much like “swing states” exist in the political arena, “swing teams” are a huge discussion every year in the NFL. Loosely defined, these are teams that I believe could shake up the NFL. They’re teams that could rise up from obscurity and steal a playoff spot from a team that we all predicted to make the postseason. By now I’m sure everyone roughly knows the stat concerning postseason turnover in the NFL. Since 1990, there’s been an average of 5.85 new postseason teams from the year prior. But that number has went up in the last four years since the league added an extra playoff team…it’s now almost SEVEN new teams with a minimum of six new entries each season. See below for five teams I think should be “swing teams” in the NFL this season…

1. Cincinnati Bengals

The most obvious candidate when talking about a team bouncing back is the Bengals. Cincinnati went from Super Bowl in 2021, AFC Championship in 2022, but were just 9-8 last year with Joe Burrow playing in just 10 games. Even when Burrow played the Bengals were still just 5-5 with their starting QB.

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Per PFF, the Bengals are in a prime position to go “worst to first”, facing the 4th easiest schedule in the league. 

But the real fun arises if the Bengals are back, and Burrow is healthy, because then who’s the odd team out in the AFC North? The Ravens are clearly the class of the division, the Browns made it last year, and the Steelers always seem to find a way.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

The AFC South is funny because in back-to-back off seasons the “darling” of the league has come from the division. Last year it was the Jaguars who some predicted to be in the AFC Championship game and this year it’s the Texans.

For this exercise let’s act like we’re buying into the Texans hype (trust me, I know not everybody is). If so, it begs a few questions…what happened to the Jags? Everybody off their bandwagon? Could they bounce back?

Jacksonville is still the second betting favorite to win the division at +250, but it doesn’t feel like they have the steam behind them like last year. If them or the Colts were to rise up (more on Indy in a few) then that would potentially mean two AFC South teams make the postseason, and that would really alter the playoff picture for many. 

3. Chicago Bears

Are the Bears ready to win now? That’s the question that keeps bouncing around my head. Sure, they’re improved but the division is a beast with the Lions and Packers poised to make a Super Bowl run.

Either way, it’s hard to not buy into the future of the Bears. I think Caleb Williams will be a star and they’ve given him weapons (Moore, Swift, Rome, Allen) to compete right away. Their over/under is still hovering around 9. In the end I’d probably bet that’s the exact win total they’ll hit, which would leave them a year away from being back in the postseason. 

4. Atlanta Falcons

I remember watching new head coach Raheem Morris at the NFL Combine here in Indy and he admitted that if the Falcons had better QB play last year, then maybe the former regime wouldn’t have been fired. It’s hard not to think he was right. Desmond Ridder was downright terrible, and Taylor Heinicke wasn’t much better.

Enter Kirk Cousins. Can Cousins resurrect an offense all while coming off a gruesome Achilles injury? 

Also don’t forget the mediocre nature of the NFC South. I could see 9-8 win the division again with perhaps Atlanta leading the way.

5. Indianapolis Colts

Lastly, what about the Colts?

The range of predictions I’m seeing for Indy might have the biggest gap of anyone in the NFL. I’ve seen analysts and “experts” pick the Colts to win the AFC South, finish third in the division, Anthony Richardson win league MVP, Richardson get benched for Joe Flacco, and just about every other ridiculous prediction.

I actually agree with ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky when he said the Colts could shake up the NFL. I believe that very well could be the case, but they still need to prove it.

Will the QB/coach combination click? Can Jonathan Taylor stay healthy? Is that CB/S depth good enough for 17 grueling weeks? All are valid questions and/or concerns.

While I think Indy might be a year away, let’s be honest, the AFC South is totally up for grabs.